The CESAR programme within SANEDI contracted ERC to undertake research during the period of 2009 to 2012. The study produced two data rich working papers which were extensively referenced in the transport sections of two major national government reports, the 2012 IEP and the 2013 Mitigation Potential Study. The study input data, assumptions, methodologies and results were disseminated in presentations to the South African National Energy Association (SANEA), the 16th Annual IUAPPA World Clean Air Conference and to students and staff of the University of Stellenbosch’s Mechanical Engineering Faculty as a research lecture. The 2nd working paper was accepted for the 2013 International Energy Workshop in Paris.
The aim of this project was to perform a comprehensive analysis of regional transport demand in South Africa in the medium to long term under different scenario assumptions. In addition, considering what the resulting demand for liquid fuels would be and the associated projected CO2 emissions. The project focused on the development of a number of models which, when combined, can be used to develop scenarios around the likely future energy and infrastructure requirements of the transport sector and its major influences in terms of both energy and emissions. The future energy demand of the transport sector was calculated in terms of services performed (‘useful’ energy) as well as the amount of energy supplied (‘final’ energy). This allows analysis of the substitution between alternative energy forms and modes as well as an appraisal of the evolution of the technological improvements in vehicles. A number of modelling techniques were combined to provide a novel and rigorous methodology for estimating the current and future vehicle parc as well as the associated energy demand. In the end; five models were developed for this study:
- A vehicle parc model.
- A time budget model.
- A computable general equilibrium model.
- A freight demand model .
- A fuel demand model.
A detailed report consisting of an executive summary, two ‘papers’ and a report on two stakeholder workshops that were held during the course of the project was completed as deliverables. The ‘papers’ are stand-alone data rich documents currently part of the ERC ‘working paper series’. The first paper focuses on the characterisation of the current vehicle parc of South Africa by province. The second paper focused on the projection of the future demand under different scenario assumptions. The complete data set required to replicate the results of the model are provided in spreadsheet format.